2026: A Perfume Bubble Year?

Hello, Fragrant Friend 👋,

Last week we had another session with our ScentlySpeaking Evaluator Circle, sitting together with the perfumer to analyse the fragrance in depth. While we realised that we still need to go back into modification, something else clicked for me.

For the first time, the group articulated very clearly what they believe a New Niche fragrance should be. Contemporary. Potentially polarising. Courageous. With the chance of becoming a game changer. But still highly wearable. And never abstract.

I had never framed it like that myself. Does this sound like what you would expect from New Niche?

🗓️ Contents of this Issue

1. Note Worthy: Fake Luxury, Trade Fair Overload, Lost Patience
2. Niche Newcomers: Crème Ébène, Karmacoma, Vanilla Baby
3. Quiz: The name that almost became New Niche
4. Scent MythBusters: When perfume starts behaving like an asset

Note-Worthy 🔎🌸

#FakeLuxuryCrisis: The fragrance boom is bending under its own weight. While the 1990s saw a few hundred launches per year, the mid-2020s have exploded into thousands. A thriving decant market reflects consumers’ desire for travel sizes — forecast to grow from US$1.5 bn in 2023 to about US$2.3 bn by 2031. As AI and easy access to raw materials lower the barrier to entry, more people can call themselves perfumers. The upside is diversity; the downside is noise and imitation.

#TRADEFAIROVERLOAD: There are 43 perfume-related events scheduled for 2026. Paris Perfume Week drew over 4,000 visitors in its 2025 edition and hosted 60 exhibitors representing 50 brands. Meanwhile, mega-events like Esxence attracted 13,500 visitors and 400 brands from 38 countries.

#PatienceLost: In 2025 the industry launched about 6,000 new fragrances. Budgets leave perfumers with just a handful of inexpensive ingredients while most investment goes into packaging and marketing. Development timelines measured in weeks mean little room for risk. As one perfumer observes, 95% of launches are minor tweaks of existing formulas.

Niche Newcomers 🎨 🌟

Crème Ébène — Dark Woods, Soft Light. Crème Ébène unfolds like polished wood warmed by skin. It opens with subtle spice and a slightly smoky dryness, then turns creamy, almost milky but never sweet — like sandalwood dust suspended in warm air. Perfumer: Patricia de Nicolaï. Notes: spices, dry woods, sandalwood, balsamic notes, soft musks.

Karmacoma — Vanilla as Phoenix. Anomalia Paris describes Karmacoma as a rebirth on blank paper. It pairs Bourbon vanilla absolute with saffron-inflected leather, powdery musk and a rare cedar fraction — a narcotic gourmand–leather hybrid. Perfumer: Sidonie Lancesseur. Notes: white paper accord, powder, cedar fraction, Greek saffron, Bourbon vanilla, leather.

Vanilla Baby — Innocence Revisited. Stéphanie de Bruijn’s Vanilla Baby delivers a grown-up comfort scent. It opens with green cardamom and coffee wrapped in balsamic warmth, blooms into a creamy milk accord with white flowers, and finishes with vanilla, cashmere wood, sandalwood and airy white musk. Perfumer: Stéphanie de Bruijn. Notes: green cardamom, coffee, balsamic notes, milk accord, white flowers, vanilla, cashmere wood, sandalwood, white musk.

A brief disclosure

Scently Speaking runs without ads and without paid placements. It exists because New Niche exists. New Niche is the fragrance publishing house we’re building in parallel. Obtaining one of its perfumes is not merchandise. It’s how this work stays independent.

Quiz 🎲

Which name did we almost choose instead of New Niche, only to drop it because a cosmetics brand already owned the trademark?
Scently Smelling · Kombray · Scents Like No Other · Nolivar

Scent MythBusters 🎭️

“Perfume is becoming an investable asset class.”
Myth of the week

When a handful of collectors resell discontinued bottles at eye-watering prices, it’s tempting to see perfume as the new wine. Vintage bottle auctions indeed fetch thousands — a 1934 Obelisk Egyptian Revival bottle sold for about $60,000 and a limited-edition Dior figural bottle realised $66,000. There is, however, no price guide for perfume bottles; they’re worth whatever someone is willing to pay on the day. This volatility indicates collecting rather than investing.

A liquid that works against time

Perfume itself is a volatile liquid. Most compositions begin to change after opening, driven by oxidation and shifts in ingredient balance. Stored carefully, they can last, but they do not improve in the way wine does. Once opened, the trajectory is almost always decline rather than development.

No market, no infrastructure

Collectors may pay high premiums for limited editions, but there is no organised exchange behind it. Transactions happen in forums, private groups or auction platforms, often without authentication or clear provenance. Unlike wine, there is no shared pricing index, no professional storage ecosystem and no standardised grading.

The consumption paradox

A fragrance is designed to be worn. Time dulls top notes and can eventually turn a composition sour. The more valuable a bottle becomes, the less it gets used, which contradicts its purpose.

Final judgement

Perfume can absolutely be collectible, especially when scarcity, storytelling and design come together. But between perishability, the absence of a structured secondary market and unpredictable demand, it does not meet the criteria of an asset class. Perfume is not meant to be stored away. It is meant to disappear on skin.